Explainable brain age prediction using machine learning : model comparison, longitudinal evaluation, and normative modelling

Master Thesis
Συγγραφέας
Cheliotis, Nikolaos
Χελιώτης, Νικόλαος
Ημερομηνία
2026Επιβλέπων
Maglogiannis, IliasΜαγκλογιάννης, Ηλίας
Προβολή/ Άνοιγμα
Λέξεις κλειδιά
Brain age ; Machine learning ; MRI ; XAI ; NeuroimagingΠερίληψη
Brain age prediction is a neuroimaging framework for estimating biological
brain aging and identifying deviations from expected aging trajectories. However,
the value of brain age models depends not only on predictive accuracy, but also
on interpretability, longitudinal reliability, and clinical relevance. This thesis investigates
explainable machine learning approaches for brain age prediction using
FreeSurfer-derived structural MRI features from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging
Initiative (ADNI) dataset.
Five regression models were developed and compared: Random Forest,
Support Vector Regression, Elastic Net, Ridge Regression, and Gaussian Process
Regression. Model performance was evaluated using Mean Absolute Error, Pearson
correlation, and Brain Age Gap dispersion. In addition, the study examined
hyperparameter sensitivity, explainability using SHAP values and complementary
feature-importance methods, short-term and long-term longitudinal stability, and
normative modelling in cognitively normal, Mild Cognitive Impairment, and Dementia
subjects.
The evaluated models achieved comparable predictive performance, with
test-set errors below five years. Random Forest achieved the lowest prediction error,
Elastic Net produced the strongest correlation with chronological age, and
SVR showed the lowest Brain Age Gap dispersion. Explainability analyses identified
biologically plausible predictors, including white matter hypointensities, ventricular
measures, hippocampal and thalamic structures, and temporal and parietal
cortical regions. SHAP feature rankings were highly stable across random seeds.
Longitudinal analyses showed strong short-term reliability, although individual
long-term aging trajectories were more difficult to capture. Normative modelling
revealed progressively elevated Brain Age Gap values in Mild Cognitive Impairment
and Dementia subjects, with group differences remaining significant after adjustment
for age and sex.
The findings of this thesis support the importance of evaluating brain age
models beyond cross-sectional accuracy alone by incorporating explainability, longitudinal
stability, and normative clinical analysis.


