Η Υπόθεση των Αποτελεσματικών Αγορών στα χρόνια της οικονομικής κρίσης
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Keywords
Αποτελεσματικότητα των αγορών ; Υπόθεση της Αποτελεσματικής Αγοράς ; Χρηματιστηριακοί δείκτες ; Εμπλεκόμενοι στην αγοράAbstract
In modern finance, the efficiency of markets is an important issue, as it is associated with the behavior of investors and their efforts to reliably predict market fluctuations. In an effective market, those involved in it (market stakeholders) can consider the current prices for any investment decision related to the purchase or sale of a security, by utilizing tools of the derivatives market. On the contrary, in any other case, the emergence of speculators creates bridges in the counterparties' confidence in current prices, resulting in inefficient use of prices for investment purposes. The purpose of this paper is (a) to examine the conceptual content and (b) to check the validity of the Effective Market Assumption (EAS) in an environment of economic crisis, comparing the Greek financial market with other countries. The analysis showed that there is efficiency in the indices and consequently in the stock markets. The indices AEX, ATHEX, DAX30 & FTSE MIB, appear statistically significant (Sig.:,000) therefore, the null hypothesis (9) is rejected, this implies the hypothesis of the effective market but also the random walk, explanatory the prices are random and unpredictable. In particular, there is a strong negative correlation (> -, 6) between the dependent variable (Rt) and the parameters [β2, β3, β4, β5], with significant statistical significance (Sig.2-tailed: 0.000), while only in ATEEX & AEX was found for parameter β3, moderately negative correlation, but with significant statistical significance (Sig.2-tailed: 0.000). In addition, for the ATEX index (Greece), the ranking of Rt prices from the maximum to the minimum price, showed that the lowest was before the Memorandum (during the period of the international recession 2007-8), with the rise of Rt gradually to subsequent periods, with a longer period after the Memorandum (2018-2020).