The role of political uncertainty and of Internet sentiment on the deposit flights in Greece
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Keywords
Φυγή καταθέσεων ; Διαδικτυακό συναίσθημα ; Ελληνική κρίση ; Πειθαρχία αγοράς ; Πολιτική αβεβαιότητα ; Deposits flight ; Internet sentiment ; Greek crisis ; Market discipline ; Google trends ; Banks ; Political uncertaintyAbstract
I examine the bank deposit behavior of Greek households over the period 2008-2017 and its relation to political uncertainty. During this period the fear of “Grexit” led depositors to withdraw their money from bank accounts. In order to capture uncertainty, I utilize the spread between Greek and German 10-year sovereign bonds rates. It has an economically and statistically significant negative association with bank deposits. The results show that a rise in spread of 100 basis points led to a decrease of 6,8% in deposits. I also utilized The Political Risk Rating for Greece from PRS Group but proved to be insufficient to provide any explanation. The Google query term “Drachma” established a statistically significant negative relation. Rise in searches for the term “Drachma” in Greek can be interpreted as a rise in fear of depositors for a possible “Grexit” a fact that is confirmed from the results. A rise of one point of the Google Trends for the term “Drachma” leads to a decrease of 0,01% in deposits
Postgraduate Studies Programme
Χρηματοοικονομική και Τραπεζική με κατεύθυνση στην Χρηματοοικονομική και Τραπεζική ΔιοικητικήDepartment
Σχολή Χρηματοοικονομικής και Στατιστικής. Τμήμα Χρηματοοικονομικής και Τραπεζικής ΔιοικητικήςNumber of pages
88Language
English
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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Διεθνές
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Διεθνές