The predictive ability of a sentiment index. A comparison across time and economic regions
Master Thesis
Συγγραφέας
Γεωργιοπούλου, Ζωή - Παναγιώτα
Georgiopoulou, Zoi - Panagiota
Ημερομηνία
2017-08Επιβλέπων
Τσιριτάκης, ΕμμανουήλΠροβολή/ Άνοιγμα
Λέξεις κλειδιά
Sentiment ; Investor sentiment ; Sentiment index ; Sentiment proxies ; Sentiment changes ; Stock markets ; Stock returnsΠερίληψη
Investor sentiment in the stock market constitutes a highly appealing field, in the area
of modern finance the last years. Many researchers have already attempted to connect
the inability of capital market prices as derived from standard Capital Asset Pricing
Model to equal the present value of expected future cash flows with the sentiment
effect in combination with limits to arbitrage. In order to explain and analyze the
sentiment effect, the first thing required, is to fairly measure this factor called
“sentiment”. It follows that the second step, is to explain the sentiment effect on
current prices by using this measure. Lastly, as can be expected, investor sentiment
measure can be effectively used as a tool for prediction of future returns and guidance
of trading strategy. Correspondingly to Baker and Wurgler latest analysis on investor
sentiment, this thesis discusses possible methods of measuring investor sentiment and
deals with the sentiment effects on two different stock categories. Last but not least, it
provides an attempt to investigate whether the measured investor sentiment is an
appropriate forecast tool for future returns.