Μια εμπειρική ανάλυση της σχέσης της πραγματικής και χρηματιστηριακής οικονομίας προ και κατά την διάρκεια της οικονομικής κρίσης και ύφεσης
An empirical analysis of the relationship of the real economy and the stock market before and during the financial crisis and recession
The present thesis treats the course of the general exchange index the period of 2003¬2012, as well as the factors that form it. So we are talking about twelve years which are divided into two equal periods: a) the pre-crisis period 2003-2007 and b) the crisis period 2008-2012. Regarding the factors that shape it, three macroeconomic variables are chosen: inflation, deposits, a parity of exchange euro-dollar and an exchange variable: volume of Stock Exchange dealings. Concerning the above mentioned, and using a statistical program (eviews), we tried to show which of these variables are statistically significant for each period and in which size. Alongside, we quoted the theoretical underpinning which is referred to the relationship of each variable to the general index, wanting to show whether the theory is confirmed in the model of a small market, such as Greek one. Due to the specific nature of the subject and the data a sensitivity was presented to the stability of the results. That's why, we tried to give a multifarious view of the variables' importance, using a variety of statistical models in order to present a substantial and less ambiguous result. The general impression that comes after the thesis' completion is the unstable and more intense effect of variables during the crisis, which is a result of the fragile and sensitive investors' psychology. So any violent change in one of the variables, creates even more violent reaction to investors. An impression caused by a high number of cointegration the period of crisis, shows that all the variables of the economy are interrelated. In contrast to the pre-crisis period, the overall index shows a more stable image, with an upward trend and with the absence of sudden changes and influences. All these will be presented in more details below, in the context of research on Greek stock market before and during the economic recession.