Προσδιοριστικοί παράγοντες του χρέους
Determinants of debt
KeywordsΔημόσιο χρέος -- Ελλάδα ; Οικονομική ανάπτυξη ; Δεδομένα πάνελ ; Μοντέλο τυχαίων επιδράσεων ; Μοντέλο σταθερών επιδράσεων ; Βοηθητική μεταβλητή ; Public debt ; Economic growth ; Panel data ; Fixed effects model ; Random effects model ; Instrumental variable
Over the years and especially after 2009 that the Euro zone debt crisis manifested itself, public debt constitutes one of the most discussed topics both in economical and political level. Several scholars have attempted in the past years to determine the main variables that affect the debt of one or more countries. In most studies, instead of the debt variable itself, the debt to GDP ratio is usually examined that illustrates a country’s debt as a function of its economic output. In this thesis, it is attempted to determine the main factors that influence the debt to GDP ratio of a high income group of countries and of a middle income group of countries. In order to achieve this, panel data of 22 high income countries from 1999 to 2014 and 22 middle income countries from 2001 to 2014 were used and several estimation techniques such as the Fixed Effects Model, the Random Effects Model and the Instrumental Variable technique were applied. The main conclusion that arises is that real GDP growth rate constitutes the main determining factor of debt in both income groups and especially an increase of real GDP growth rate seems to lead to a decrease of the debt to GDP ratio of both high and middle income countries. This conclusion is in complete agreement with the corresponding study of Sinha et al. (2011). Additionally, an increase of government expenditures and trade of high income countries appears to result in an increase of the debt to GDP ratio of those countries. On the contrary, inflation and foreign direct investments do not show statistically significant results in both income groups. Finally, an increase of the population growth rate of high income countries appears to lead to a decrease of the debt to GDP ratio based on the Fixed Effects Model, the Random Effects Model and the Instrumental Variable technique.