Qualitative and quantitative risk management approaches for turnaround projects in the process industry
Προβολή/ Άνοιγμα
Λέξεις κλειδιά
Risk ; Project risk ; Project risk management process ; Risk analysis ; Quantitative analysis ; Monte Carlo simulationΠερίληψη
Over the last decades, Project management science shows increasing recognition and
growth. The benefits to organizations are numerous and significant by the
implementation of Project management, with the consequence that it becomes more
and more popular in the business world. Nowadays, it is merely a fact that all projects
involve risk. In other words, the zero risk project is not worth pursuing. That is the
reason why risk management is considered today as an integral part of project
management, a key process where most of the project managers know that is essential
and prerequisite for good project management. More and more companies are now
applying the risk management process in their projects, not only in order to predict the
future, which is impossible, but also to improve their performance and increase their
profits. This master thesis consists of two parts, the first is a bibliography research on
risk management and the project risk management process, while in the second part, a
risk analysis in a shutdown project of a refinery takes place as a case study. In order to
examine the project risk, we proceed to both qualitative and quantitative analysis, with
special attention to be given to the second one. Also, for the purposes of this study, two
computer programs were used. The @Risk® of Palisade Corporation was applied to
perform the quantitative analysis (Monte Carlo simulation, Sensitivity analysis) in the
project, which was first modeled through dynamic scheduling with Microsoft® Project.
The research was carried out from February 2015 to July 2015.