Investing by following reserve policy : empirical tests

Master Thesis
Συγγραφέας
Mouratidis, Ioannis
Μουρατίδης, Ιωάννης
Ημερομηνία
2026-03Επιβλέπων
Skoulakis, GeorgiosΣκουλάκης, Γεώργιος
Προβολή/ Άνοιγμα
Λέξεις κλειδιά
Federal Reserve policy ; Dynamic asset allocation ; Regime classification ; Momentum strategies ; Risk-adjusted performance ; Tactical investing ; Monetary policy ; Portfolio managementΠερίληψη
This thesis examines the effectiveness of dynamic asset allocation strategies based on
Federal Reserve monetary policy regimes as a framework for managing portfolio risk and
generating risk-adjusted returns. Using monthly data from 1976 to 2025, we classify
market conditions into three distinct regimes expansive, indeterminate, and restrictive
based on Federal Reserve policy stances, and construct eight investment strategies that
systematically adjust equity and defensive asset allocations in response to these regime
classifications.
Our empirical analysis reveals that Federal Reserve policy regimes exhibit distinct
return characteristics, with restrictive periods representing 38.8% of observations (the
most frequent regime), while expansive and indeterminate conditions each occur 30.6% of
the time. Notably, indeterminate periods generate the highest equity returns (15.41%
annualized) despite representing uncertain policy conditions, challenging conventional
defensive positioning during mixed-signal environments. Restrictive periods, though most
frequent, still produce positive equity returns (5.39% annualized), while bond returns
remain relatively stable across all regimes (3.54-5.44% range).
Our findings demonstrate that Federal Reserve policy regime classification provides
a systematic framework for dynamic asset allocation that meaningfully enhances risk-
adjusted performance. However, momentum-enhanced strategies, despite superior Sharpe
ratios, accumulate only 32 - 48% of benchmark's long-term wealth, illustrating the
fundamental trade-off between risk management and wealth maximization. This tension
highlights that optimal strategy selection depends on investor preferences those
prioritizing smooth portfolio experience and risk-adjusted returns should adopt
momentum approaches, while wealth maximizers may prefer the benchmark's higher
volatility and returns.
The thesis contributes to investment literature by demonstrating that: (1) Federal
Reserve policy regimes exhibit predictable return patterns suitable for tactical allocation,
(2) indeterminate periods, despite policy uncertainty, warrant aggressive equity
positioning due to exceptional returns, (3) defensive asset selection significantly impacts
performance given restrictive periods' high frequency, and (4) momentum overlays can
enhance regime-based strategies while compressing performance differentiation through
selective defensive positioning. These insights provide a practical framework for investors
seeking to manage portfolio risk through systematic responses to monetary policy
conditions while understanding the inherent trade-offs between risk management
objectives and long-term wealth accumulation.
Keywords: Federal Reserve policy, dynamic asset allocation, regime classification,
momentum strategies, risk-adjusted performance, tactical investing, monetary policy,
portfolio management.


