Electric vehicle charging load forecasting : an experimental comparison of machine learning methods
Πρόβλεψη απαίτησης φόρτισης ηλεκτρικών οχημάτων – Μία πειραματική σύγκριση μεθόδων μηχανικής μάθησης

Bachelor Dissertation
Συγγραφέας
Kyriakopoulos, Iason
Κυριακόπουλος, Ιάσων
Ημερομηνία
2025-06Επιβλέπων
Theodoridis, IoannisΘεοδωρίδης, Ιωάννης
Προβολή/ Άνοιγμα
Λέξεις κλειδιά
Electric vehicles ; Charging load forecasting ; Time series forecasting ; Comparative analysis ; ARIMA ; Machine learning ; Deep learningΠερίληψη
With the growing popularity of electric vehicles, as a means of addressing climate change, there are
concerns about their adoption affecting electric grid management. Consequently, predicting charging
demand is a timely and valuable research effort. There has been plenty of research on the forecasting of
energy load in transportation. However, there are limited efforts to compare multiple methods over different
temporal and spatial horizons, across a variety of cities.
This thesis investigates the effectiveness of five time series forecasting models, ranging from traditional
statistical ones to more recent machine learning and deep learning methods. The predictions cover short-,
mid- and long-term forecasting scenarios, examining performance from individual charging station level
through regional aggregations to city scale implementations.
All models were implemented in lightweight form, with no hyperparameter tuning, limited epochs and
simple, pre-defined architectures. According to the results, ARIMA outperforms the other, more complex
models across all configurations. Despite its simplicity, it achieves the lowest prediction errors, highlighting
its robustness and timelessness.