Urban shared mobility demand forecasting
Πρόβλεψη ζήτησης για αστική κινητικότητα

Master Thesis
Author
Tziorvas, Antonios
Τζιόρβας, Αντώνιος
Date
2025-06View/ Open
Keywords
XGBoost ; Urban data analytics ; Shared mobility ; Time series forecastingAbstract
Urban demand forecasting plays a critical role in optimizing routing, dispatching, and congestion management within Intelligent Transportation Systems. By leveraging data fusion and analytics techniques, traffic density estimation serves as a key intermediate measure for identifying and predicting emerging demand patterns. In this thesis, we propose two gradient boosting model variations, one for classification and one for regression, both capable of generating demand forecasts at various temporal horizons, from 5 minutes up to one hour. Our approach effectively integrates spatial and temporal features, enabling accurate predictions that are essential for improving the efficiency of shared (micro-)mobility services. To evaluate the effectiveness of our approach, we utilize open shared mobility data derived from e-scooters and e-bikes networks in two Dutch metropolitan areas. These real-world datasets enable us to validate our approach and demonstrate its effectiveness in capturing the complexities of modern urban mobility. Ultimately, our methodology offers novel insights on urban micro-mobility management, helping to tackle the challenges arising from rapid urbanization and thus, contributing to more sustainable, efficient, and livable cities