Ο πληθωρισμός της δεκαετίας του 70 και ο σημερινός. Ομοιότητες - διαφορές και η αντίδραση της κεντρικής τράπεζας
Inflation of the 70s versus the current inflation. A comparison central bank’s reaction
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Keywords
Πληθωρισμός ; Μεγάλος πληθωρισμός ; Νομισματική πολιτική ; Κεντρική τράπεζαAbstract
The Great Inflation was the defining macroeconomic event of the second half of the twentieth century. In its nearly two decades, the world monetary system established during World War II was abandoned, there were economic recessions, severe energy shortages, and the unprecedented implementation of peacetime wage and price controls. It was the biggest failure of macroeconomic policy in the post-war period. But this failure also brought about a transformative change in macroeconomic theory and, ultimately, in the rules that today guide the monetary policies of Central Banks around the world. In light of the experience of the 1970s, the case for a prolonged period of high inflation is clear. First, the supply disruptions caused by the pandemic and the recent supply shock caused to energy prices by the war in Ukraine resemble the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979-1980. Second, then and now, monetary policy was highly accommodative in the period before these crises. After several months of above-target inflation in major advanced economies, a sharper-than-expected policy tightening may now be required to bring inflation back to target, which could trigger a sharp landing similar to that seen earlier in the decade of 1980.