Πολυπληθυσμιακά μοντέλα πρόβλεψης του ρυθμού θνησιμότητας στην Ελλάδα και επιπτώσεις στα συνταξιοδοτικά ταμεία
Multi-population modelling of Greek mortality rates and applications to pension plans
KeywordsMortality rates ; Population ; Projection ; Forecast ; Pricing ; Multi-population models ; Lee-Carter model
Some of the most far-reaching social and economic challenges of the current age are caused by the rapid increases in longevity and aging of populations across the world. One strand of eﬀorts to meet these challenges has been the development of a wide range of models in order to forecast the future evolution of mortality rates, based on a combination of statistical extrapolation of historical data and expert judgment. This paper presents some of the main mortality models in the literature and emphasizes the Lee-Carter model (1992) as it is a widely known model for predicting mortality. Then, three of the main multi-population mortality models are analyzed, which are based on the Lee-Carter model (1992) and provide the possibility of simultaneous modeling of two or more populations. Given data from the population of Greece, for men and women, the methodology of the models is applied for both populations at the same time and the predictions of mortality rates are calculated. Following this, mortality tables are constructed based on the predicted mortality rates for the purpose of pricing insurance products. The objective of this study is to examine the predictive capacity of multi-population mortality models for two populations compared to independent predictions through the Lee-Carter model (1992).