Η βιωσιμότητα του ελληνικού δημόσιου χρέους
Sustainability of Greek public debt
SubjectΔημόσιο χρέος -- Ελλάδα
KeywordsΒιωσιμότητα δημοσίου χρέους ; Δημοσιονομική πολιτική ; Δημοσιονομικό έλλειμμα ; Public debt ; Sustainability ; Fiscal policy ; Fiscal deficit
The aim of this paper is to study the current and crucial issue of public debt in Greece over the period from 1974 to 2015. Especially, from 1981 onwards there is a continuous and rapid increase in the public debt of Greece, but from 2010 to the present Greece faces particularly fiscal and other problems. The method is used, is based on the budget constraint and the test which was proposed by Hakkio and Rush in 1991. For public debt as a percentage of the gross domestic product to be sustained, it should be stabilized, which means that the fiscal deficit should be sustainable. This in turn implies that government expenditure should be able to be financed by government revenues. Thus, a short-term and a long-term relationship between government spending and government revenue will be examined, using cointegration tests. The empirical results confirm the existence of cointegration between these variables which present almost an inversely proportional relationship between them, due to the fact that an increase in general government expenditure by one is causes a decrease in general government revenue of 0,8985, a fact, which leads us to conclude that the Greek public debt may not be sustainable after all.