Συναλλαγματικές κρίσεις : ποιοί παράγοντες μπορούν να τις προβλέψουν ;
Loci, Eranda, L.
SubjectΤράπεζες και τραπεζικές εργασίες -- Χρηματοοικονομική ανάλυση ; Τραπεζική οικονομική ; Ρευστότητα (Οικονομική) ; Ισοζύγιο πληρωμών ; Εξωτερικό χρέος
The present post-graduate thesis aims at examining the existence relationship or not between current account balance, external debt, M2, real exchange rate, GDP, reserves of Central Bank and terms of trade. Next, we define this relationship. Thus, the assessment of this relationship is implemented with the use of the most recent econometric techniques and theories. The methodology used is the Panel Data Analysis. Through the application of Panel Data unit roots tests, the Granger Causality tests, tests for cointegration and the Error Correction Models, it is examined the long term relationship. For the determination of the casual relationship, the cointegration of the variables and then the long term equilibrium relationship is investigated by applying Engle’s and Granger methodology. The empirical part within the research is carried out quarterly observation and the dissertation utilizes data covering the period 1990 to 2012. The finding suggest the presence of unit roots at the first difference of data and all variables cointegrated for both cases of with and without time trend in the regressions. Furthermore, the Granger causality suggests that there are bidirectional causality between external debt and current account balance between reserves and current account balance.