Ανάλυση και πρόβλεψη των τιμών ναύλων στην αγορά tanker. Πρόβλεψη της τάσης στην αγορά spot
Tanker freight rates market analysis and prediction. Short-term spot rates trend forecast
KeywordsForecast ; VAR model ; Time-lag ; Market analysis ; Risk management ; Freight rates ; Maritime statistics ; Correlation analysis
The substantial business risk arising from the freight rates volatility is one of the most important sources of risk and uncertainty for shipowners. In the present study an extensive analysis of the influence factors at the tanker freight rates market is presented and a methodology for short-term spot rates trend forecast is developed, with the aim of mitigating future risk. The predictive model creation is approached statistically. The model is synthesized with a combination of correlation analysis and usage of Vector Autoregression Model (VAR). Main axis of the study is the optimal time that important parameters impact the freight rate level formation. The created forecast model fully meets its goal as it accurately captures the trend of the freight rates market over a four-month horizon. The forecast results can be capitalized by the shipping industry stakeholders for more effective risk management, timely hedging and strategic decision making.