Συσχέτιση των ναύλων των capesize bulk carriers με τις τιμές του σιδηρομεταλλεύματος και του άνθρακα
KeywordsΑιτιότητα κατά Granger ; Σιδηρομετάλλευμα ; Ναύλωση και ναύλος ; Άνθρακας ; Capesize Bulk Carriers ; Granger causality ; Iron ore ; Coal ; Capesize Bulk Carriers freight rates
This thesis aims to the examination of iron ore and coal characteristics as basic commodities and their price relationship to freight rates of the vessels that transport them. In the empirical analysis of the study, the existence of Granger causality between commodities prices and freight rates of Capesize Bulk Carriers is examined, using five important voyage charter sea routes and six month and one year time-charter rates. In the theoretical part, the characteristics, types, production methods and the uses of iron ore and coal were analyzed. The major producers, consumers, importers and exporters of the last years were identified, including the most important sea routes for each commodity. In the empirical analysis, Granger causality using the Toda-Yamamoto (1995) procedure between commodity prices and Capesize Bulk Carriers freight rates (voyage charter and time charter) has been examined. No signs of causality were found between iron ore prices and freight rates for the period 2009-2016. On the contrary, causality was found from iron ore price to all freight rates for the period 2013-2016. The test results for coal show causality from freight rates to thermal coal prices (5% significance level) and from coal prices to freight rates for some of the examined routes (10% significance level). In conclusion, iron ore prices could be used as an independent variable in a forecasting model of Capesize Bulk Carriers freight rates.