Εννοιολογικό πλαίσιο και ανάπτυξη μοντέλου για την πρόβλεψη και διαχρονική παρακολούθηση των δαπανών υγείας

Νίκα, Ελισάβετ

A conceptual framework and model development for forecasting and monitoring of healthcare expenditures

Doctoral Thesis

Author

Νίκα, Ελισάβετ

Date

2026-07-15

Abstract

The continuous growth of healthcare expenditure, population ageing, the increasing burden of chronic diseases, and the need for efficient allocation of limited healthcare resources have highlighted the importance of developing more accurate and evidence-based methodologies for healthcare expenditure estimation and budgeting. This doctoral dissertation develops a comprehensive data-driven and disease-based methodological framework for the estimation, forecasting, and longitudinal monitoring of healthcare expenditure at the disease level. The proposed framework integrates epidemiological, demographic, and economic data through a decomposition–recomposition approach. The methodology includes estimating disease prevalence, defining the target population, identifying diagnostic and therapeutic pathways, and calculating healthcare costs across different categories of healthcare services. This approach enables the systematic linkage of population health needs with the resources required to address them. The framework was empirically applied to three major disease areas in Greece: type 2 diabetes mellitus, Alzheimer's disease, and anxiety disorders, in order to evaluate its applicability and generalizability. The findings demonstrate that the proposed methodology provides a more accurate representation of healthcare expenditure structures, enhances transparency in resource allocation processes, and supports evidence-based decision-making and healthcare policy planning. The contribution of the dissertation is threefold. First, it advances the theoretical understanding of the relationship between disease burden and healthcare expenditure. Second, it introduces a methodological framework capable of integrating heterogeneous data sources for expenditure estimation and forecasting. Third, it offers a practical decision-support tool for healthcare budgeting and policy design, facilitating the transition from traditional top-down budgeting approaches toward more dynamic and evidence-based resource allocation models.

Department

Σχολή Οικονομικών, Επιχειρηματικών και Διεθνών Σπουδών. Τμήμα Οργάνωσης και Διοίκησης Επιχειρήσεων

Number of pages

105

Language

Greek

URI

https://dione.lib.unipi.gr/xmlui/handle/unipi/19584

Collections

Τμήμα Οργάνωσης και Διοίκησης Επιχειρήσεων

Show full item record

Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as
Αναφορά Δημιουργού-Μη Εμπορική Χρήση-Όχι Παράγωγα Έργα 3.0 Ελλάδα