A modelling framework in support of residential energy policy : assessing transition pathways across local, regional, and national scales

Papantonis, Dimitris; Παπαντώνης, Δημήτριος

Πλαίσιο μοντελοποίησης για την υποστήριξη της χάραξης ενεργειακής πολιτικής στον οικιακό τομέα : αξιολόγηση μονοπατιών μετάβασης σε τοπική, περιφερειακή και εθνική κλίμακα

Doctoral Thesis

Author

Papantonis, Dimitris

Παπαντώνης, Δημήτριος

Date

2026

Abstract

Residential buildings occupy a central position in the European energy transition, accounting for a substantial share of final energy consumption and energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, while also constituting a primary interface between climate and energy policy and citizens’ everyday lives. This importance is reflected in the European Union’s evolving energy and climate policy framework, which increasingly connects renovation, energy efficiency, electrification, carbon pricing, and social protection. At the same time, decisions in the residential sector are shaped by long investment lifetimes, slow stock turnover, and strong dependence on previous technology and infrastructure choices, making the timing and sequencing of transition pathways critical for avoiding lock-in effects and aligning near-term decisions with long-term climate, resilience, and justice objectives. In this context, energy system models have been widely used to support policymaking, particularly for exploring long-term decarbonisation pathways and assessing system-level feasibility. However, in most cases, such models are following “top-down” approaches, representing the residential sector in an aggregated manner, abstracting from building-level characteristics and household heterogeneities. While such representations are useful for ambition-setting and consistency checks at national or European scales, they often function as black boxes from a policy-delivery perspective, offering limited transparency on the mechanisms through which emissions reductions are achieved within the building stock, how policy measures translate into household-level change, and how their impacts vary across household groups and regions. Building on these considerations, this dissertation contributes to demand-side energy system modelling by developing additional capabilities within the Dynamic high-Resolution dEmand-sidE Management (DREEM) model. The resulting framework supports the assessment of residential energy transition pathways across time horizons and spatial scales, while retaining a bottom-up representation of household energy demand. To do so, the dissertation develops and integrates two complementary components within DREEM. The first enables household-level demand profiles to be aggregated to local, regional, and national levels, while the second creates a scenario space in which key residential transition parameters evolve over time (e.g., renovation and heating technology substitution rates, energy prices, technology costs, demographic change, building-stock evolution, emission factors, and carbon-pricing-related costs). The dissertation applies this framework to the Greek residential sector across national, regional, and local levels, examining residential transition pathways through the interconnected dimensions of decarbonisation, energy resilience, and energy justice. Across the three applications, the analysis examines how different residential transition strategies, characterised by varying renovation ambition, heating technology substitution, and policy conditions, shape energy, emissions, and cost trajectories over time. These trajectories provide the basis for assessing how pathway choices affect not only the feasibility of emissions reduction, but also exposure to fossil-fuel dependence, price and carbon-pricing risks, household affordability, and territorially specific transition challenges. At the national level, the dissertation examines how alternative renovation rates and heating technology substitution pathways affect the feasibility of achieving residential decarbonisation in Greece by 2050 or, under a more ambitious pathway, by 2040. At the regional level, it examines how nationally driven energy planning translates into region-specific transition outcomes, focusing on the expansion of natural gas infrastructure and the associated increase in natural gas use for residential heating in the Peloponnese region. At the local level, it focuses on the municipality of Megalopolis, a coal- and carbon-intensive region undergoing post-lignite transition, comparing the replacement of lignite-linked district heating with subsidised gas boilers against alternative pathways prioritising electrification and energy efficiency. Across these applications, the results show that pathways relying on modest renovation progress and fossil-fuel-based transitional solutions risk delaying emissions reductions, and increasing long-term costs, while prolonging fossil-fuel dependence. By contrast, electrification- and efficiency-oriented pathways deliver more favourable outcomes in terms of decarbonisation and long-term cost reduction, while reducing exposure to fossil-fuel dependence, imported fuel volatility, and additional costs associated with carbon pricing. Overall, the dissertation demonstrates that dynamic bottom-up demand-side modelling can support residential energy transition policymaking by translating high-level decarbonisation objectives into implementation requirements, including renovation rates, heating technology pathways, emissions trajectories, and cost implications. Its multi-level application shows that residential transition strategies need to be assessed not only where policy targets are defined, but also where their implications unfold: across regions and municipalities with distinct building-stock characteristics, heating systems and socio-economic conditions. Finally, it should be mentioned that the framework has been applied in policy-facing research activities within European Commission-funded projects, where modelling assumptions, scenario narratives, and transition pathways were discussed with policymakers, practitioners, and stakeholders. In parallel, it was used to support the Greek Ministry of Environment and Energy in the development of targets and implementation steps for the updated Greek Long-Term Renovation Strategy. These applications strengthen the policy relevance of the dissertation by demonstrating how the modelling framework can inform real-world residential energy policy design, from analytical scenario assessment to the formulation of implementation-oriented targets and measures.

Department

Σχολή Ναυτιλίας και Βιομηχανίας. Tμήμα Βιομηχανικής Διοίκησης και Tεχνολογίας

Number of pages

178

Language

English

URI

https://dione.lib.unipi.gr/xmlui/handle/unipi/19452

Collections

Τμήμα Βιομηχανικής Διοίκησης και Τεχνολογίας

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Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as
Αναφορά Δημιουργού-Μη Εμπορική Χρήση-Όχι Παράγωγα Έργα 3.0 Ελλάδα