Ανάπτυξη υποστηρικτικού πλαισίου για την προσομοίωση σεναρίων διάχυσης φωτοβολταϊκών συστημάτων μικρής κλίμακας στον οικιακό τομέα κρατών μελών της Ευρωπαϊκής Ένωσης
Developing a supportive framework to simulate diffusion scenarios of small-scale solar photovoltaic systems in European Union member states’ residential sector
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Keywords
Ενεργειακή μετάβαση ; Ανανεώσιμες πηγές ενέργειας ; Φωτοβολταϊκά συστήματα μικρής κλίμακας ; Μοντελοποίηση ; Προσομοίωση ενεργειακών συστημάτων ; Ποσοτικοποίηση αβεβαιοτήτων ; Ηλιακό δυναμικό ; Ανάλυση ευαισθησίας ; Υιοθέτηση τεχνολογιών ; Μοντελοποίηση βάσει πρακτόρων ; Προσομοίωση πιθανών εξελίξεων ; Ενεργειακή πολιτική ; Κλιματική πολιτικήAbstract
Given the climate and energy targets set by the European Union towards the transition to climate neutrality by 2050, the need for adoption and further diffusion of electricity production technologies from renewable energy sources becomes more and more imperative.
In this context, the main objective of this postgraduate diploma thesis is to investigate how the citizens of specific European Union member states (i.e., France, Denmark, Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Poland) can play a greater role in the future energy system and the diffusion of small-scale rooftop photovoltaic systems through the appropriate energy policy planning. However, scientific knowledge about the way that the sociopolitical context typically affects citizens’ decision-making processes is still on early stage.
In order to address this gap in the scientific literature, this thesis aims to examine the rooftop solar panels’ potential in the residential sector of the aforementioned European Union’s member states using the Agent-based Technology adOption Model (“ATOM”), developed by the Technoeconomics of Energy Systems laboratory (TEESlab).
More specifically, possible evolutions of different diffusion scenarios for small-scale solar photovoltaic systems are modelled with the use of the “ATOM” modelling tool under different energy policy schemes, like “net metering”, or “net billing”, and under three (3) different socioeconomic storylines/transition pathways for each policy scheme under study. Note that these forward-looking simulations are only performed for the case of Greece to test and demonstrate in full length the applicability and usefulness of the supportive modelling framework developed. On the other hand, the supportive framework developed in this thesis, mainly focusing on the calibration of the “ATOM” modelling tool, is fully presented for all the aforementioned Member States under study, except for the case of Poland due to lack of data.
Results indicate that agents’ (consumers’/citizens’) behavior is differentiated from country to country, driven by different technoeconomic data representing the contextual socioeconomic differences in each Member State. Finally, results reveal that a combination of different energy policy schemes may be needed in order to promote and support prosumerism in Greece. The exact pathway for the achievement of the energy goals set varies from country to country, while the thesis provides specific policy recommendations and implications for the case of Greece.