Essays in central banking and monetary policy
Δοκίμια στην κεντρική τραπεζική και νομισματική πολιτική
Doctoral Thesis
Author
Πατσούλης, Πάτροκλος
Patsoulis, Patroklos
Date
2022-01-19View/ Open
Keywords
Banking ; Finance ; Quantitative easingAbstract
This dissertation contains two chapters that can be broadly categorized to the literature on exogenous shocks to the monetary system and their effects on European convergence. The two chapters attempt to empirically investigate how changes to monetary policy after the financial crisis of 2007–2009 have affected the bank credit channel, and how the COVID-19 pandemic crisis has affected the European integration process.
Specifically, Chapter 1 aims to investigate the convergence pattern of 27 countries of the European Union (EU) during the COVID-19 pandemic period by applying the Phillips and Sul (2007, 2009) methodology. The motivation behind this paper is to analyze whether there are long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the convergence process of the European Union. The hypothesis that we empirically test is that the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting from the different degrees of stringency of the responses, will result in a divergence between the EU member states. As a result, this behavior will lead to deteriorating conditions among EU countries and will decelerate their unification. Our findings suggest that the countries converge into two clubs. Both clubs are composed of countries that have previously been classified as either “core” or “periphery” European countries, indicating that, in this particular crisis, this classification is too simplistic. We argue that the difference in national policies has led to a schism between the countries in the two clubs, and that fiscal policy needs to come into play if policymakers want to prevent a further weakening of the EU convergence process.
Chapter 2 explores the role of central bank interventions in the form of unconventional monetary policies (asset purchase programs) and their ability to influence bank loan supply. Through novel spatial econometric techniques, we propose that the unexpected size of the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) quantitative easing program led to an increased loan supply from monetary financial institutions (MFIs) after 2015, while positively affecting expectations. The effect is more pronounced on the total amount of loans provided by MFIs. The estimated models include 18 Eurozone members, and the results are based on 2502 observations (collected from Datastream, the ECB and other sources) that indicate that central bank interventions improve credit conditions through the bank credit channel, resulting in the creation of both direct and indirect spillover effects. Finally, the results also suggest that central bank interventions are expressed mainly from policy announcements as well as actual asset purchases.