Ναυτιλιακοί κύκλοι: η επίδραση της χρηματοοικονομικής κρίσης στην αγορά χύδην ξηρών φορτίων

Σκλαβενίτης, Ευστάθιος

Master Thesis

Author

Σκλαβενίτης, Ευστάθιος

Date

2020-06-16

Abstract

The present thesis deals with the effects of the Financial Crisis of 2008 on dry bulk freight market by analyzing how rates fluctuated during the period from 2003 to 2019. Based on the theoretical approach of shipping cycles, we examine the consequences of an external shock for dry bulk sector, given the fact that a global economic downturn affects directly sea-borne trade in international level. Dry bulk shipping was a vulnerable segment considering the huge fluctuations in the market and BDI, which stemmed from the high freight and time char-ter rates recorded from 2003 to 2008. As a result there was an increasing number of new or-ders for even bigger vessels, as ship-owners craved for investments in the perspective of huge gains; therefore taking advantage of economies of scale and the prosperous dry bulk freight market. However, things turned out differently in the light of the Great Recession, which caused a huge gap between demand and supply of maritime transport services. This constant oversupply of vessels led the dry bulk shipping market from peak to trough and since then, the high rates of 2007-2008 never even approached the same levels, despite the increased scrap-ping activity. Although some improvement was achieved in the early years after the crisis, with the BDI falling to its lowest level in history in 2016, it was proved that recovery will take longer than expected. Finally, apart from the main analysis, this study aims to emphasize the unpredictable characteristics of the shipping industry and the volatility of the dry bulk freight market. The results indicate that the forecasting of the dry bulk freight market and the prediction of ship-ping cycles seem to be complicated issues, since there are always factors such as external economic shocks, world trade decline, accidents, luck or even a pandemic like Covid-19 today that could reverse everything.

Postgraduate Studies Programme

Ναυτιλία

Department

Σχολή Ναυτιλίας και Βιομηχανίας. Τμήμα Ναυτιλιακών Σπουδών

Number of pages

Language

Greek

URI

https://dione.lib.unipi.gr/xmlui/handle/unipi/12758
http://dx.doi.org/10.26267/unipi_dione/181

Collections

Τμήμα Ναυτιλιακών Σπουδών

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