Aνάπτυξη πολυκριτηριακού συστήματος ανάλυσης κινδύνων για τη χωροθέτηση μονάδων υγροποιημένου φυσικού αεριού μικρής κλίμακας
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Keywords
Υγροποιημένο φυσικό αέριο ; Χωροθέτηση ; Διαδικασία Αναλυτικής Ιεράρχησης ; Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) ; Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) ; Site selectionAbstract
Increasing energy demand and the need to switch to cleaner forms of energy have contributed in recent decades to the promotion of natural gas, which due to lower greenhouse gas emissions is considered a cleaner source of energy than other fossil fuels such as oil and carbon. Natural gas is usually supplied through pipelines between its extraction and intake areas. However, natural gas reserves are often located far from demand areas, making pipeline transportation technologically and economically infeasible. Therefore, it is preferred to be transported in liquid form, as liquefied natural gas, presenting several advantages in fuel logistics flexibility. To date, most LNG projects have involved large-scale projects. However, some small scale projects, which are regional supply storage hubs, have recently emerged, which have potentials in terms of functionality and scalability. Small Scale LNG plants are considered to be able to contribute effectively to the sustainable energy development of areas remote from the established natural gas distribution networks, such as the case of the Greek islands, as well as other remote areas in the Greek territory.
In this context, the present thesis aims at investigating the subject of site selection of a small scale LNG plant, with a case study on the island of Chios. The search for the dominant location for siting the facility, is carried out by proposing a methodology based on project risk analysis and evaluation, where the assessment of potential alternatives results from the above risk analysis. Finding the risks encountered in small scale LNG projects results first of all from the search for risks generally considered in technical projects, secondly from the security risks involved in LNG transportation and storage, as well as from the requirements of Greek legislation concerning these projects. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), which is a widespread multi-criteria decision analysis method, is used as a tool for determining the probability of risks, which as a quantitative measure represents the criteria for evaluating alternative locations, and for comparing the alternatives with respect to these risks. The comparisons are made by a group of experts in the LNG industry in the form of questionnaires. Finally, the aim of the thesis is to prove the proposed methodology as a flexible and low-cost tool useful in the issue of LNG location.
The conclusions drawn from the thesis initially concern the risks inherent in the siting of small scale LNG terminal. In addition, the AHP method highlights the most important risks, which are Security Risks and Techno-Economic Risks. Also, the appropriate location is found, which is ranked higher than the other 3 alternatives. Finally, the reliability of the method and the robustness of the decision are confirmed by the AHP's consistency control as well as by the sensitivity analysis performed on the two most important risks. Therefore, the AHP method is proved to be a flexible, fast and efficient way of analyzing risks in small scale LNG plant siting projects, which make it a useful tool in this field.