FFA - Forward Freight Agreements
Present thesis deals with the market of shipping derivatives and particularly the way the Forward Freight Agreements influence the current freight market (Spot Market). Initially we present a general reference in derivatives and the influence they have at different markets, the reasons of their expansion, as well as the way transactions are made and cleared. Specifically in the shipping derivatives market we quote the basic types among them, whereas on the FFAs there is an extended reference in their advantages and disadvantages along with the way contracts are made and executed. In the main subject of this thesis we test the hypothesis of variables independence (unbiasedness hypothesis), if the FFAs may be used as good predictors of the spot market. Initially, we test the two variables without taking into consideration the presence of cointegration between them. Second to that, we decide to include cointegration in order to correct our initial model. The cause-effect relationship, as well as the way the variables are connected, both short and long term is depicted following our initial hypothesis. With the assistance of econometric tests, we manage to define the relationship that connects the Forward and the Spot market. On top of that, an additional test is used to get round the problems of cointegration and variance, in order to verify the causal relation between timeseries.