Σχέση μεταξύ τιμών πετρελαίου, οικονομικής δραστηριότητας, χρηματιστηριακής δραστηριότητας και ανεργίας στις ΗΠΑ
Relationship between oil prices, economic activity, stock market activity and unemployment in the USA
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Keywords
Ηνωμένες Πολιτείες Αμερικής ; ΗΠΑ ; Πετραλαϊκή παραγωγή ; Τιμές πετρελαίου ; Ανεργία ; Αποδόσεις χρηματιστηρίου ; VECM ; Συνολοκλήρωση ; USA ; Oil prices ; Unemployment ; Stock returns ; Co-integration analysisAbstract
The paper studies the relationship between oil prices, economic activity, unemployment and stock market activity in the US during the period 1986:1 to 2014:12, using two different empirical specifications. The empirical relationship between industrial production, stock prices, oil prices and interest rates will be investigated by developing and estimating a four variable Vector Error Correction model for the first specification. By replacing industrial production with civilian unemployment rate, for the second specification, a new multivariate Vector Error Correction model will be created and its dynamic interactions will be also studied.