Πλαίσιο μοντελοποίησης για την υποστήριξη της μακροπρόθεσμης στρατηγικής ανακαίνισης της Ελλάδας με ορίζοντα το 2050

Αναγνωστοπούλου, Χρυσάνθη

A modelling framework in support of the Greek long-term renovation strategy towards 2050

Master Thesis

Author

Αναγνωστοπούλου, Χρυσάνθη

Date

2026

Abstract

Climate change and the need to achieve the vision of climate neutrality by 2050 make the acceleration of the energy transition across all sectors of the economy imperative. In this context, the buildings sector, and particularly the residential sector, plays a crucial role in achieving national and European energy and environmental objectives, as it accounts for a significant share of final energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Within this context, this master thesis examines the energy transition in the Greek residential sector up to 2050, in accordance with the targets defined in the revised National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP-2024). The analysis was carried out using the simulation tool “DREEM” (Dynamic high-Resolution dEmand-sidE Management), which enables a detailed representation of the residential sector through building typologies differentiated by climatic zone, construction period, building envelope characteristics, and heating systems. Following the parameterisation of the model with national data, the NECP-2024 transition scenario was simulated and its energy, environmental, and economic impacts were assessed. The results indicate that final energy consumption in the residential sector decreases from approximately 4,608 ktoe in 2022 to 2,678 ktoe in 2050, corresponding to an overall reduction of 42%. At the same time, a significant transformation of the energy mix is observed, characterised by the complete phase-out of heating oil, a substantial reduction in natural gas consumption, and an increased share of electricity and biomass. Heat pumps constitute the dominant heating technology by 2050, while approximately 1.9 million building envelope renovations are projected to be implemented by 2050, contributing significantly to the reduction of residential energy demand. From an environmental perspective, annual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions decline from approximately 13.6 Mt CO₂ in 2022 to 0.35 Mt CO2 in 2050, representing a reduction of about 97%. Furthermore, approximately 142 Mt CO2 emissions are avoided by 2050 compared to the current situation. The analysis by climatic zone reveals significant differences in intervention intensity and energy-saving potential, with Climatic Zone B accounting for the largest share of required interventions due to the size of its residential building stock. The economic assessment demonstrates that the energy transition requires substantial investments, with the total discounted cost of interventions estimated at approximately €23.5 billion. Nevertheless, considerable long-term economic benefits are identified, as reduced energy consumption and lower exposure to costs associated with the Emissions Trading System (ETS)- expected to be introduced in the European Union Member States’ buildings and transport sectors by 2027- result in substantial savings for households. Overall, the findings of this thesis quantify the NECP-2024 targets in the Greek residential sector. Their achievement depends on the systematic implementation of large-scale building renovations, the rapid deployment of efficient heating technologies, and the availability of appropriate financial and institutional support mechanisms.

Postgraduate Studies Programme

Βιομηχανική Διοίκηση και Τεχνολογία

Department

Σχολή Ναυτιλίας και Βιομηχανίας. Tμήμα Βιομηχανικής Διοίκησης και Tεχνολογίας

Number of pages

128

Language

Greek

URI

https://dione.lib.unipi.gr/xmlui/handle/unipi/19643

Collections

Τμήμα Βιομηχανικής Διοίκησης και Τεχνολογίας

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Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as
Αναφορά Δημιουργού-Μη Εμπορική Χρήση-Όχι Παράγωγα Έργα 3.0 Ελλάδα