Η επίδραση των γεωπολιτικών εντάσεων στο διεθνές εμπόριο και τις άμεσες ξένες επενδύσεις. Οι περιπτώσεις της Μέσης Ανατολής και του πολέμου Ρωσίας - Ουκρανίας

Καρατσιβίδης, Δημήτριος

The impact of geopolitical tensions on global trade and foreign direct investment : evidence from the Middle East and the Russia - Ukraine war

Master Thesis

Author

Καρατσιβίδης, Δημήτριος

Date

2025-11

Abstract

This dissertation examines the impact of geopolitical tensions on international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI), focusing on two emblematic cases: the Middle East and the Russia–Ukraine war. The main objective is to explore how conflicts and political instability affect global economic flows, investor behavior, and market stability. The research adopts a mixed methodological approach, combining qualitative and quantitative analysis. It draws on data from major international organizations such as the World Bank, UNCTAD, IMF, WTO, and Eurostat, as well as secondary sources from academic literature and institutional reports. The study investigates the structure and mechanisms of international trade, the theoretical foundations of FDI, and the transmission channels through which geopolitical tensions disrupt global economic relations. The findings indicate that geopolitical conflicts lead to increased political risk, reorientation of trade flows, and a reduction in FDI inflows, particularly in regions directly affected by instability. At the same time, there is growing evidence of trade regionalization through friend-shoring and near-shoring strategies, as countries and firms seek to minimize exposure to geopolitical risk. Specifically, the Russia–Ukraine war has generated long-term structural and institutional transformations in global trade and investment patterns, while tensions in the Middle East tend to produce cyclical rather than permanent disruptions. Overall, the research concludes that geopolitical uncertainty has become a persistent feature of the global economic landscape, demanding greater resilience from states and enterprises alike. Policy recommendations include the diversification of trade partners and energy sources, investment in green and sustainable technologies, and the integration of geopolitical risk assessment into strategic investment models. Finally, the study highlights the need for further research into the interplay between geopolitical conflicts and the global green transition.

Postgraduate Studies Programme

Οικονομική και Επιχειρησιακή Στρατηγική

Department

Σχολή Οικονομικών, Επιχειρηματικών και Διεθνών Σπουδών. Τμήμα Οικονομικής Επιστήμης

Number of pages

101

Language

Greek

URI

https://dione.lib.unipi.gr/xmlui/handle/unipi/18804

Collections

Τμήμα Οικονομικής Επιστήμης

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Αναφορά Δημιουργού-Μη Εμπορική Χρήση-Όχι Παράγωγα Έργα 3.0 Ελλάδα