Σύγχρονη ελληνική αποτρεπτική στρατηγική
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Keywords
Αποτροπή ; Εθνική ασφάλεια ; Ρεαλισμός ; Ισορροπία ισχύος ; Παγίδα του Θουκυδίδη ; Διεθνείς σχέσεις ; Ελληνική αποτρεπτική στρατηγική ; Ελληνοτουρκικές σχέσειςAbstract
The present master’s thesis examines Greek deterrence strategy within the continuously evolving geopolitical and strategic environment of the Eastern Mediterranean. It focuses on the study of deterrence as a fundamental component of national security and analyzes its theoretical and practical manifestations in the case of Greece. The thesis draws upon classical theories of deterrence, ranging from Thucydides and Sun Tzu to Waltz, Nye, and Allison, while simultaneously engaging with the work of Greek scholars such as Platias and Koliopoulos in order to construct a coherent and multi-layered theoretical framework.
The study maps the structure of Greek deterrence strategy through an examination of historical crises (such as the events at Evros in 2020 and the tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean), diplomatic and military cooperation with allies (NATO, the EU, the United States, France, and Israel), the technological modernization of the Armed Forces (FDI frigates, Rafale aircraft, F-35, MEKO upgrades, and Type 214 submarines), as well as the social and economic parameters that affect the resilience of deterrence. Particular emphasis is placed on hybrid and non-conventional threats, such as migratory pressure, cyber warfare, and the strategic instrumentalization of instability by Turkey.
The SWOT analysis incorporated into the study provides a synthetic assessment of the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats of Greek deterrence strategy, contributing to the depiction of an overall strategic balance. The thesis concludes with specific policy recommendations addressing the institutional strengthening of the National Security Strategy, the reinforcement of the domestic defense industry, the promotion of a security culture, and the enhancement of strategic communication.
Ultimately, Greek deterrence strategy is assessed as adequate, yet requiring continuous adaptation, internal cohesion, and compliance with the “rules” of the international system. The study contributes both theoretically and empirically to the understanding of the challenges facing Greece, offering a strategically substantiated point of departure for further research and policy planning.