Γεωπολιτικά γεγονότα και ο αντίκτυπός τους στις παγκόσμιες χρηματιστηριακές αγορές

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Keywords
Χρηματιστηριακές αγορές ; Γεωπολιτικό ρίσκο ; Γεωπολιτικά γεγονότα ; Μεταβλητότητα ; Χρηματιστηριακοί δείκτεςAbstract
This research aims to analyze how major geopolitical events affect the performance of stock markets worldwide. The issue is initially approached in a general manner, leading to the conclusion that, according to the bibliographic research, geopolitical events can have a significant yet temporary impact on global stock markets. It is usually observed that markets tend to recover after a few months. However, at the local level — in specific markets — depending on their proximity to the events and the degree of economic and trade interconnection, the effects may be deeper and longer-lasting. These findings are confirmed through the case study analysis.
Specifically, three events in world history are examined: the Cuban Missile Crisis, the collapse of the USSR, and the Russia–Ukraine war. Of these events, the first two appeared in global stock markets as if they had never occurred, showing only brief and partly abrupt market reactions, while the last one seems to have had a significant impact on stock markets at the local level, particularly within the EU, and especially in certain sectors.
Each case is studied through specific econometric models that confirm our conclusions. The findings verify the hypothesis that it is the expectations of investors and market participants that drive prices. Therefore, the way news is communicated, as well as what investors around the world expect or how they perceive it, directly influences market performance.


