Διερεύνηση σχέσεων συνολοκλήρωσης και αιτιότητας του ρυθμού ανάπτυξης με διάφορες μακροοικονομικές μεταβλητές στο Νεοκλασικό Υπόδειγμα Swan – Solow
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Keywords
Ακαθάριστο Εγχώριο Προϊόν ; Υπόδειγμα Swan – Solow ; Χρονοσειρές ; Δεδομένα Panel ; Στασιμότητα ; Έλεγχος Μοναδιαίας Ρίζας ; Συνολοκλήρωση ; Αιτιότητα κατά GrangerAbstract
The purpose of this paper is to research the cointegration and the causality of the growth rate of the real Per capita Gross Domestic Product, with macroeconomic variables drawn on the basis of the neoclassical Swan – Solow model of long – term equilibrium. Initially, the schools of macroeconomic thought are analyzed and the main categories of macroeconomic models are presented, as well as the basic concepts of Gross Domestic Product. The long-term equilibrium models of Harrod – Domar and Swan – Solow are then analyzed, where the latter is considered an evolution of the former. In the last part of the paper, stationarity, cointegration and Granger causality are investigated in Panel data consisting of 7 southern European countries for the years 1996 to 2020. To determine stationarity, the Levin – Lin – Chu unit root test is used. Westerlund's test is then used to find the cointegration of the variables, the results of which verify the existence of a long-term convergence between the growth rate of real GDP per capita and the rest of the variables of the Swan – Solow model. Finally, granger causality between variables is investigated, using the method of Juodis, Karavias and Sarafidis.