Εμπειρική διερεύνηση των παραγόντων που επιδρούν στα κόκκινα δάνεια στην Αμερική
Empirical investigation of the factors affecting non-performing loans in America
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Keywords
Μη εξυπηρετούμενα δάνεια ; Αμερική ; Oικονομική ανάπτυξηAbstract
Non-performing loans are a major challenge for the banking sector. The rate
of these loans in America reflects the soundness of the banking system. A high rate
of such loans reflects the difficulty of banks in raising interest and capital on loans.
Banks are more likely to lead to less profit or even bankruptcy. The purpose of this
study was to study non-performing loans in the US and to find the macroeconomic
and sectoral factors that affect them and consequently economic growth. The
research period was from 1988 to 2018 with quarterly data. The independent
variables of the survey were commercial and industrial loans, the real GDP growth,
unemployment rate, public debt, consumer price index, interbank rates, return on
assets and return on equity. The results of the analysis showed that the determinants
of non-performing loans are the consumer price index, the commercial and industrial
loans and the unemployment rate, with negative and positive effects. In addition,
2019 data were used and in combination with the final model, a forecast was made in
order to determine whether the forecast prices correspond to the real ones.