Εμφάνιση απλής εγγραφής

dc.contributor.advisorΔαγούμας, Αθανάσιος
dc.contributor.advisorDagoumas, Athanasios
dc.contributor.authorΠεριφάνης, Θεοδόσιος
dc.contributor.authorPerifanis, Theodosios
dc.date.accessioned2021-06-10T13:30:19Z
dc.date.available2021-06-10T13:30:19Z
dc.date.issued2020-05
dc.identifier.urihttps://dione.lib.unipi.gr/xmlui/handle/unipi/13486
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.26267/unipi_dione/909
dc.format.extent246el
dc.language.isoenel
dc.publisherΠανεπιστήμιο Πειραιώςel
dc.rightsΑναφορά Δημιουργού-Μη Εμπορική Χρήση-Όχι Παράγωγα Έργα 3.0 Ελλάδα*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/gr/*
dc.titleAn assessment of OPEC’S strategy and market factors on crude oil pricingel
dc.typeDoctoral Thesisel
dc.contributor.departmentΣχολή Οικονομικών, Επιχειρηματικών και Διεθνών Σπουδών. Τμήμα Διεθνών και Ευρωπαϊκών Σπουδώνel
dc.description.abstractENThe main aim of this dissertation is to explore and discover the main crude price drivers. While oil is seen as a commodity, its market structure is much more complex. It is not a commodity which can be produced in abundance from each country, even if in our era there are multiple sources other than the conventional ones. As a result, the countries are separated into producers and consumers with many new producers to claim their market share. Along with the oil price determinants, we try to best describe the role and strategy of major producers like those of Saudi Arabia and the Russian Federation, and then focus on OPEC. Our main result is that demand is the main determinant , something which implies lack of substitution. However, shale production and inventories play a deflationary role but in a much lesser way than what is widely conceived. Financial speculation plays a contributory role to market’s volatility. However, pricing is fundamentally explained. On the contrary, negative shocks in supply are not possible since we had incidents like the surge of the Islamic State which did not cause disruptions. Predominantly, the glut could prevail due to negative demand shocks like recessions or epidemics like the COVID. Further, it is proposed that consumers and producers have common interest to keep prices at reasonable levels and dialogue could be achieved. As for the linkage between the natural gas and oil markets, we find strong evidence of market decoupling in several markets. In the US (Henry Hub), UK (National Balancing Point or NBP) and continental Europe (Title Transfer Facility or TTF in Netherlands) the natural gas market is a completely separate market. And even when there are linkages, these are only transient. However, in the Japanese-Korean market or Japan Korea Marker (JKM), when the nuclear power plants were turned off after the Fukushima accident, oil drove the LNG prices. We consider the Saudi Arabia as the swing producer, which covers most of the demand increases, but leaves space to the others. Saudi Arabia does not want to keep prices at extreme levels as this would harm future demand. In addition, Saudi Arabia keeps the same production strategy irrespectively of the time-horizon, prices and inventories. Especially, in the short-run the major producer tries to make inventories less cost effective. In addition, the Russian Federation is not solely dependent on oil prices. The Russian GDP is more dependent on state expenditure. However, the oil dependence might come from the relationship between the state expenditure and GDP. We find that there is a level of dependency but not Dutch disease. We also find that OPEC production can deflate prices, however, OECD production is more significant in the long-run. On the contrary, OPEC’s production has the same influence on the short-run, while OECD has insignificant impact. The last shows the production and export bottlenecks OECD countries face. Finally, OPEC continues to be capable of sending strong signals to the market. Its production profile can prevent market failures. Further, it can be transformed into a forum between producers and consumers. Many OPEC countries could help in drafting a manual of good practice since they are in their effort to diversify their economy. Last, oil price volatility is considered as the main threat for both consumers and producers.el
dc.subject.keywordOilel
dc.subject.keywordCrudeel
dc.subject.keywordOPECel
dc.subject.keywordNatural gasel
dc.subject.keywordLiquefied Natural Gas (LNG)el
dc.subject.keywordSaudi Arabiael
dc.subject.keywordHenry Hubel
dc.subject.keywordNBPel
dc.subject.keywordTTFel
dc.subject.keywordJKMel
dc.subject.keywordPriceel
dc.subject.keywordDriversel
dc.subject.keywordPricingel
dc.subject.keywordHydrocarbonsel
dc.subject.keywordShaleel
dc.subject.keywordEnergy economicsel
dc.subject.keywordEnergy policyel
dc.subject.keywordGas hubsel
dc.subject.keywordVolatilityel
dc.subject.keywordDemandel
dc.subject.keywordSupplyel
dc.subject.keywordSpeculationel
dc.subject.keywordUncertaintyel
dc.subject.keywordRussiael
dc.subject.keywordBubblesel
dc.subject.keywordExplosive periodsel
dc.subject.keywordCommoditiesel
dc.subject.keywordECMel
dc.subject.keywordVECMel
dc.subject.keywordVARel
dc.subject.keywordEconometricsel
dc.subject.keywordInvestmentsel
dc.subject.keywordFinancial marketsel
dc.subject.keywordLong-run modelsel
dc.subject.keywordEconomic modellingel
dc.subject.keywordAsymmetric price transmissionel
dc.subject.keywordCausalityel
dc.subject.keywordBrentel
dc.subject.keywordWTIel
dc.subject.keywordGas marketsel
dc.subject.keywordOil marketsel
dc.subject.keywordImpactsel
dc.subject.keywordRenewableel
dc.subject.keywordTightel
dc.date.defense2021-01-22


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