Τεχνικές ανάλυσης εποχικών και κυκλικών κυμάνσεων της γαμηλιότητας του πληθυσμού της Ελλάδας
SubjectΓάμος -- Στατιστικές μέθοδοι
In this study we examine the phenomenon of nuptiality in Greece, using monthly data, at the time period 1980 until 1998. At the same time this phenomenon is examined for urban, semi-yrban and rural regions of country. Analytically, the marriage in Greece is influenced by tradition and religion, as a social and religious institution. As a result, it presents the phenomenon of seasonality. Specificly, using the methology of time series split, we led to the conclusion that each year is observed an important reduction of marriages at the period of “Sarakosti”. Besides, the number of marriages decreases dramatically at the duration of leap years, that is every four years, in comparison with other years. Moreover, we conclude that every year the number of marriages is increased in July. This is connected with the existence of good weather, that encourages the performance of marriages. At the same time we lead to the conclusion that marriages present long-lasting cathodic tendency. This shows the change of Greeks’ habits with regard to the institution of marriage. Finally, we try to forecast the number of marriages with the methologies of time series split and Box-Jenkins approach.