Η χρησιμότητα της τεχνικής ανάλυσης στον εντοπισμό των βραχυπρόθεσμων τάσεων χρηματιστηριακών αγορών
Γερασίμου, Χρίστος Β.
The performance of any investment in the stock markets is at a great extend a matter of timing. During the last 50 years, the most important tool for the identification of the proper timing is Technical Analysis, which is constantly questioned because it lacks scientific foundation. However, it is used widely and in a great time span by numerous companies, which spend considerable amounts to employ technicians, to buy relevant software etc. This thesis can conclude therefore that they enjoy superior returns, which at least compensate them for the corresponding expenses. As a result, a scientific research which spans throughout almost all of the financial markets and covers a large time span has been developed. The results of that research illustrate that even though arbitrary, the methodologies used in Technical Analysis, lead to positive results and therefore constitute valuable tools for investors. This research aims to examine the effectiveness of an alternative way of selecting investment movements. More specifically, it aims to examine, whether the rules of technical analysis and particularly the methodology of moving averages, is able to produce buy and sell signals that lead to excessive returns, in relation to the Buy & Hold strategy. To this end, it applies moving averages to do transactions in two periods that differ significantly in terms of market momentum: The bear market of 1/3/2001 - 30/6/2003, the bull market of 1/7/2006 - 30/6/2008. The findings are impressive, with the moving averages recording significantly higher returns than the Buy & Hold tactic, regardless of the market trend.