Μελέτη σχέσης αιτιότητας κατά Granger μεταξύ συναλλαγματικής ισοτιμίας και εμπορικού ελλείμματος
Βαγή, Ελευθερία Π.
SubjectΔιεθνές εμπόριο -- Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση ; Συναλλαγματικές ισοτιμίες -- Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση, Χώρες της ; Μεταβλητές (Μαθηματικά) ; Οικονομετρική ανάλυση
The present post-graduate thesis aims at examining the existence or not between the trade deficit of 6 unbalanced countries of European Union and the exchange rate euro/dollar and to define this relationship next. The assessment of this relationship is implemented with the use of the most recent econometric techniques and theories. The major tests and methods employed in this thesis, for the completion of its aims and objectives, were the Dickey-Fuller’s unit root tests, the Granger causality tests, tests for cointegration, and the Error Correction Models. For the determination of the casual relationship, the cointegration of the variables and then the long-run equilibrium relationship is investigated by applying Engle’s and Granger’s methodology. Firstly, the meaning and the implication of trade deficit was defined for such as countries of European Union as USA. Furthermore two present theories of econometric theory were presented next, such as Granger causality and co-integration. The theory of the above econometric methods is developed with the purpose to examination the casual relationship and co-integration between trade deficit of unbalanced European countries and exchange rate euro/dollar in countries of European Union which have adopted the single European current.