Ενεργειακά μοντέλα πρόβλεψης με έμφαση στη βιώσιμη ανάπτυξη και την κλιματική αλλαγή

Παναγόπουλος, Δημήτριος

Energy forecasting models with emphasis on sustainable development and climate change

Master Thesis

Author

Παναγόπουλος, Δημήτριος

Date

2026-06

Abstract

In recent years, electricity markets have been changing at a rapid pace. Renewable Energy Sources are penetrating increasingly, markets are becoming more interconnected with one another, and fuel prices are shifting more easily across countries. An environment has now emerged in which forecasting electricity prices is becoming progressively more difficult. This means that the possibility of changing the approach to electricity price forecasting must be considered. An approach should be developed that goes beyond conventional methods. This dissertation examines the Greek wholesale electricity market. The period under study covers the years 2012–2025 and investigates the way electricity prices are formed under the conditions of the energy transition. The objective of this study is to attempt to answer the following question: Is a higher share of renewable energy sources sufficient to lead the market toward lower and more stable prices, or are there other mechanisms that keep the market in a state of instability? To serve this purpose, an econometric forecasting model has been developed using monthly data from the Greek electricity market as well as international energy sources. The analysis links the Market Clearing Price to factors such as electricity demand, natural gas prices, renewable energy penetration, system balancing conditions, and market operation. At the same time, an effort is made to examine whether price behavior improves as electricity generation from renewable energy sources increases, or whether new pressures and limitations begin to emerge. For this reason, the study introduces the Extended Transition Point (ETP) Index. The findings answer these questions and indicate the way forward. The Greek market is influenced to a decisive extent by natural gas prices, balancing requirements, and system flexibility, despite the expansion of Renewable Energy Sources. The conclusion reached by this dissertation is that the transition to cleaner energy alone is not sufficient to achieve lower or more stable prices. The development of electricity storage, greater system flexibility, and reducing dependence on the influence of fossil fuels continue to play a significant role.

Postgraduate Studies Programme

Βιοοικονομία, Κυκλική Οικονομία και Βιώσιμη Ανάπτυξη

Department

Σχολή Οικονομικών, Επιχειρηματικών και Διεθνών Σπουδών. Τμήμα Οικονομικής Επιστήμης

Number of pages

Language

English

URI

https://dione.lib.unipi.gr/xmlui/handle/unipi/19771

Collections

Τμήμα Οικονομικής Επιστήμης

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Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as
Αναφορά Δημιουργού-Μη Εμπορική Χρήση-Όχι Παράγωγα Έργα 3.0 Ελλάδα