The impact of US shale oil production on the global oil market

Master Thesis
Συγγραφέας
Hamamciyan, Liane - Sophie
Ημερομηνία
2025-06-26Επιβλέπων
Polemis, MichaelΠολέμης, Μιχαήλ
Προβολή/ Άνοιγμα
Λέξεις κλειδιά
Oil market ; US ; US shale oilΠερίληψη
This study demonstrates how the US shale revolution fundamentally restructured global oil
markets through three structural mechanisms: 1) Introducing price-elastic supply capabilities that
reduced OPEC's market-balancing capacity from controlling 75% of global spare capacity (2008)
to 58% (2020), 2) Redefining global trade flows through accelerated US energy self-sufficiency
that cut net oil imports by 12.4 million b/d (2005-2020) while expanding light crude exports to 3.4
million b/d1, and 3) Creating new geopolitical realities through reduced petrostate leverage,
evidenced by 22% decrease in Middle Eastern crude's strategic premium (2010-2020). Empirical
analysis reveals shale production contributed 58% of global supply growth 2010-20201, with
Permian Basin productivity gains driving 62% improvement in barrels per fracking unit (2016-
2023, Fig.8). The supply elasticity introduced through 6-9 month project cycles1reduced Brent
crude volatility by 22% post-2014 price crash compared to previous cycles, while quality arbitrage
from light shale exports forced $12-18/bbl discounts for medium/heavy crudes. These
transformations established shale as the marginal price-setting barrel, with WTI-Brent spreads
narrowing from $27 (2011) to $3 (2023) as infrastructure constraints eased1. The study concludes
that shale's structural impacts persist despite cyclical volatility, necessitating revised market
models incorporating elastic supply responses and reconfigured petrostate strategies in energy
diplomacy.


