| dc.description.abstractEN | This thesis conducts a critical survey of the determinants influencing natural gas demand
in Europe, within the context of rapidly evolving geopolitical, environmental, and
technological landscapes. Against the backdrop of the European Green Deal, the post-
pandemic economic recovery, and the energy security crisis precipitated by Russia’s 2022
invasion of Ukraine, this study explores how multiple interconnected factors shape the
consumption of natural gas across European markets.
Using a structured literature review methodology, the thesis systematically examines and
categorizes key drivers into six dimensions: economic fundamentals, market dynamics,
policy and regulatory frameworks, technological developments, environmental
considerations, and geopolitical influences. Emphasis is placed on the methodological
rigor and empirical consistency of recent studies, many of which employ econometric,
equilibrium, or hybrid modeling techniques to assess short- and long-term demand
elasticities. The research also integrates conceptual and theoretical frameworks such as
the Energy Trilemma, Multi-Level Perspective (MLP), and diffusion of innovation models
to contextualize the socio-technical and policy transitions affecting natural gas use.
Findings highlight that while economic activity and income growth remain fundamental
drivers of demand, recent structural shifts—such as increased electrification,
decarbonization policies, and LNG diversification—are redefining natural gas’s role in
Europe’s energy mix. The study identifies key areas of consensus, such as the negative
long-term impact of carbon pricing on demand, alongside points of contention, including
the transitional function of natural gas in low-carbon scenarios. It concludes by proposing
an analytical framework to guide future policymaking and research, emphasizing the need
for a coordinated response to balance energy security, affordability, and sustainability in
Europe’s evolving gas landscape. | el |
