Εξέλιξη - πρόβλεψη του συνταξιοδοτικού συστήματος στην Ελλάδα
Ηλιόπουλος, Ηλίας Π.
SubjectΕξισώσεις ; Simultaneous equations ; Στοχαστικές ανελίξεις -- Μαθηματικά υποδείγματα ; Συντάξεις -- Ελλάδα
This project aims to find and estimate an appropriate Simultaneous Stochastic Equation Model that refers to actuarial pension variables. For this purpose, a review of relative articles and studies is conducted, the theoretical background of the econometric methodologies is analyzed and related to the simultaneous equation system, as well as the second pillar of pension system frame, which is used in order to define the variables of the model. The equations of the system are estimated based on real data, using the two stage least square method and a full statistical analysis of the findings is conducted such as the coefficients’ explanation, the confidence intervals and the hypothesis tests. Also, the basic assumptions of the disturbance variables are examined. Based on these assumptions the desired attributes of the estimators can be achieved. Moreover, the predictive ability of the model is examined and the ex post and ex ante prediction cases are presented. Finally, some suggestions related to the methodology of the determination of the appropriate model are presented, which can be used for the expansion of this research as well as some thoughts that explain and analyze the conclusions of the research are given.