Οι οικονομετρικές προσεγγίσεις της γονιμότητας του ελληνικού πληθυσμού
Τζουγάς, Ιωάννης Γ.
The decline of fertility in our country is the result of a long-term procedure in which are involved biological, demographic, social, and other factors, most of which have contributed in its descending course, while only few of them have influenced it adversely. This thesis aims at assessing the contribution of demographic, social, and economic determinants in the shaping of fertility below the replacement level in our country during the postwar period. In particular, the main purpose of the present thesis is the econometric evaluation of the short-term in relation to the long-term evolution fertility during the time period 1960-1997 by the application on the one hand of mathematicostatistical methods and on the other hand of two dynamic econometric models under the names DMLTEF (Dynamic Model of Long-Term Evolution of Fertility) and DMSTEF (Dynamic Model of Short-Term Evolution of Fertility) with endogenous variables for both of them the Crude Birth Rate, the Female Labor Force Participation Rate, the GDP per head, the Infant Mortality Rate and the Marriage Rate. At the same time the same evaluation is applied through VAR models.