Πρόβλεψη αποτελέσματος σε ποδοσφαιρικούς αγώνες με τη χρήση στατιστικών μοντέλων
Master Thesis
Date
2015View/
Keywords
ΠοδόσφαιροAbstract
The subject of this thesis is to examine and investigate whether the theoretical forecasting models of football matches can predict the final outcome of a match and whether the final results agree against the odds given by the betting companies. The idea arose from the fact that each odd which is given by a betting company is also a possibility of the final outcome of the match, so we consider it very useful to examine on whether the prediction of the betting companies are succesfull . For this reason we examine all matches of the Greek Superleague for the period 2011/12 - 2013/14, per match. After we capture all of the data, for each team separately , we will look at the success rate of the final results in relation to the odds. Then we will apply the FIFA ranking system for the first time at club level and examine whether it was successful in the prediction of final results. This is the first time to our knowledge the success rate that one player can have using only the betting odds , is investigated. Also it is the first time that FIFA ranking system is used to forecast results at club championship matches rather than in international competitions. More specifically, in the first chapter we make a general reference for the prediction methods in statistics. In the second chapter we analyze the models and applications of statistics that predict the final results at football matches. The third chapter is a presentation of the betting environment in Greece concerning both the general and legal part. In the fourth chapter we make a brief analysis on the current situation in Greek football and an overview of events. The fifth chapter analyzes the purpose, the methodology, the material used in our research, the research time and the rules of betting in Greece. In the sixth chapter we present the results of our research and analyze them. In the seventh chapter we propose some alternative scenarios of rational betting. Finally, in the eighth and final chapter we present the conclusions of our research and make some proposals to improve our forecasting models.
Postgraduate Studies Programme
Οικονομική και Επιχειρησιακή ΣτρατηγικήDepartment
Σχολή Οικονομικών, Επιχειρηματικών και Διεθνών Σπουδών. Τμήμα Οικονομικής ΕπιστήμηςNumber of pages
157Language
GreekCollections
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Διεθνές
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Διεθνές