Προβολή θνησιμότητας για προγράμματα κοινωνικής ασφάλισης στην Ελλάδα

Μποζίκας, Απόστολος Ε.

Mortality projection for social security programs in Greece

Master Thesis

Author

Μποζίκας, Απόστολος Ε.

Date

2014-03-28

Abstract

Worldwide, the 20th century brought significant changes in mortality rates at all ages, for both males and females. In Greece, the number of elderly was increased as a result of the reduction of infant mortality, combined with low fertility and birth rates. This thesis presents how the past mortality rates may evolve, over the next 40 years. Moreover, the future projection of mortality is directly related to the social security programs in Greece, given that the increase in the number of elderly, among other social and financial consequences, implies increase of cost for pensions, health and medical care. Initially, the main demographic rates, which are related to mortality and have contributed substantially to its development at current levels, are described. Moreover, key elements for mortality by gender and age are presented. Finally, the methodology adopted is analyzed and conclusions are drawn about future mortality rates in Greece and other outcomes, such as possible changes in life expectancy the following years. It is important to mention that this study is largely based on the theory of stochastic processes, particularly on the theory of time series, which control and limit uncertainty of the conclusions, resulting from the projection of mortality rates in the future.