Διερεύνηση τάσεων της εγχώριας διακίνησης εμπορευματοκιβωτίων στο λιμάνι του Πειραιά

Παντελής, Εμμανουήλ Ν.

Master Thesis

Author

Παντελής, Εμμανουήλ Ν.

Date

2013-04-04

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to study and assess the movement of containers in the port of Piraeus, using data from 2001 and onwards. The prediction model in this paper is based on a quantitative prediction method, disregarding any further qualitative analysis of container traffic. The choice of method is based on the nature of the data used (container traffic of the period 2001-2011) and the fact that a quantitative method outweighs a qualitative method when interested in what happens in the future and not why it happens. It should be noted that the prediction model cannot be able to cover a time horizon of more than 2 or 3 years, because of the nature of the model and the data used. The study will be done using the model of multiple linear regression using different explanatory variables, such as Greek GDP, industrial production index, balance of payment, interest of 10Y Greek bond yield and GDP world. In the first chapter we cite the literature review, then some theoretical elements for the place presented in this paper, port of Piraeus, and the market in which we deal. Coming next, we compare the port of Piraeus with other competitive ports of the Mediterranean using some widely accepted benchmarking factors in order to see whether it can match or even surpass them. In chapter four we cite the analysis of our forecasting technique. A basic description of multiple regressions before presenting the statistical data that will be used to run the model, using the IBM SPSS software. Next comes the analysis of the results explaining why some of the independent variables are excluded etc. and the presentation of our regression equation used to forecast future container traffic. In the end, an overview of the study is included and general conclusions are provided.