Μελέτη και εκτίμηση πολυμεταβλητών υποδειγμάτων στην ανάλυση χρονοσειρών
Master Thesis
Author
Κυρίος, Ηλίας Θ.
Date
2011-01-26View/ Open
Subject
Πληθωρισμός (Οικονομία) ; Petroleum products -- Prices ; Πετρέλαιο -- Βιομηχανία και εμπόριο -- Στατιστική ανάλυση ; Time-series analysis ; Εφαρμοσμένη στατιστικήAbstract
The study examines the relationship between inflation and oil prices in selected countries of European Union. Firstly, the causality test between these two variables is taking place. For the determination of causal relationships is applied the Granger causality test. Modeling the impact of oil prices in Consumer Price Index (CPI) obtained with the help of Impulse Response Function, showing that CPI react to shocks in oil price. Using monthly observations of CPI for Greece, German, Italy, Spain, Portugal, France, United Kingdom, Netherland and oil price (Brent), for the period 2005-2009, this study concludes that the price of oil affects the CPI, all major countries except the Netherlands.