Analyzing the failure of western diplomacy in the war of Ukraine
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Keywords
Ukraine Wwar ; Western diplomacy ; DiplomaticfFailures ; NATO expansion ; Minsk agreements ; Energy security ; Geopolitics ; Transatlantic relations ; U.S. foreign policy ; President Biden Administration ; President Trump AdministrationAbstract
The 2022 Russia-Ukraine war represents a devastating geopolitical crisis, which this thesis contends is not an unforeseeable tragedy nor the result of unilateral Russian aggression alone but the culmination of persistent and interconnected Western diplomatic failures spanning several decades. This study critically examines these failures, arguing that strategic miscalculations, ideological rigidity, and a consistent underestimation of historical, cultural, and security sensitivities by Western powers significantly contributed to the conflict's outbreak and escalation. Key areas of Western policy scrutinized include the post-Cold War eastward expansion of NATO and the perception of broken assurances given to Russia; the flawed design, conflicting interpretations, and strategic manipulation of the Minsk Agreements, which systematically eroded trust and ultimately failed to secure peace; Europe's profound energy dependency on Russia, which weakened the impact of economic sanctions and exposed transatlantic vulnerabilities; significant internal divisions within the U.S.-EU alliance regarding strategic priorities and burden-sharing; and oscillating U.S. diplomatic strategies that failed to offer consistent or credible de-escalatory pathways.
The analysis further evaluates alternative diplomatic approaches, including the missed opportunities for cooperative security frameworks, the potential of Ukrainian neutrality, and accelerated EU integration as less provocative alternatives to NATO enlargement. It also engages critically with counterarguments defending Western strategy, highlighting the paradoxes and unintended outcomes of collective security doctrines and sanctions policies. Moreover, this work assesses the limitations of international institutions like the UN and OSCE in preventing or mitigating the crisis and details the war's profound human, economic, and geopolitical consequences, including its role in accelerating the shift towards a more contested multipolar international order.
The thesis concludes that these multifaceted diplomatic failures underscore the urgent need for a recalibrated Western approach to international security and great power relations. It advocates for future diplomacy to be grounded in geopolitical realism, historical awareness, cultural sensitivity, strategic empathy, and a renewed commitment to cooperative security mechanisms and inclusive, sustained dialogue to prevent similar crises.
Postgraduate Studies Programme
American Studies: Politics, Strategy and EconomicsDepartment
Σχολή Οικονομικών, Επιχειρηματικών και Διεθνών Σπουδών. Τμήμα Διεθνών και Ευρωπαϊκών ΣπουδώνCorporate Department
New York University’s Center for Global Affairs (CGA)Number of pages
113Language
EnglishCollections
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Αναφορά Δημιουργού-Μη Εμπορική Χρήση-Όχι Παράγωγα Έργα 3.0 Ελλάδα
Αναφορά Δημιουργού-Μη Εμπορική Χρήση-Όχι Παράγωγα Έργα 3.0 Ελλάδα