Μοντέλα influence diagrams στη λήψη αποφάσεων υπό αβεβαιότητα. Εφαρμογή στη διοίκηση κινδύνων και ποιότητας σε έργα
Influence diagrams models for decision making under uncertainty. Applications in risk and quality management of projects
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Keywords
Διαγράμματα επιρροής ; Διοίκηση κινδύνων ; Διαχείριση ποιότητας ; Λήψη αποφάσεων ; Πολυπλοκότητα ; Συστημικές μέθοδοιAbstract
In the modern construction sector, decision-making under uncertainty is a continuous challenge. This thesis focuses on the use of Influence Diagrams (ID) as a tool for modeling complex relationships to assist in decision-making, with application in Risk and Quality Management. Influence Diagrams are a graphical visualization tool that offers a graphical and systematic way to model complex decision problems by identifying and representing causal relationships among variables, decisions and outcomes, highlighting the cause-effect relationships between factors that influence decision- making. Unlike traditional Decision Trees, Influence Diagrams emphasize interdependencies and enable the incorporation of uncertainty and probabilistic elements.
The thesis analyzes how Influence Diagrams enhance the Risk Management and Quality Management processes, supporting the making of sound decisions aimed at the success of the project. The combination of Influence Diagrams and Risk Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Monte Carlo simulation are also presented, highlighting their potential for quantitative analysis in complex conditions. Their role in visualizing critical parameters, sensitivity analysis and risk prioritization are emphasized.
Furthermore, the thesis provides an overview is given of the challenges in the modern construction sector in Greece and globally, such as the challenge of uncertainty, complexity and delays. It also examines how the application of systemic methods contributes to the effective management of these challenges. Finally, the thesis underscores the value of Influence Diagrams as a key tool for strategic thinking and project management, as it is a tool that combines qualitative and quantitative analysis, supporting the achievement of project objectives.
Postgraduate Studies Programme
Βιομηχανική Διοίκηση και ΤεχνολογίαDepartment
Σχολή Ναυτιλίας και Βιομηχανίας. Tμήμα Βιομηχανικής Διοίκησης και TεχνολογίαςNumber of pages
124Language
GreekCollections
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Αναφορά Δημιουργού-Μη Εμπορική Χρήση-Όχι Παράγωγα Έργα 3.0 Ελλάδα
Αναφορά Δημιουργού-Μη Εμπορική Χρήση-Όχι Παράγωγα Έργα 3.0 Ελλάδα