Analysis of dry bulk freight markets using the Cobweb Theorem
Ανάλυση ναυλαγορών χύδην ξηρών φορτίων χρησιμοποιώντας το θεώρημα του ιστού της αράχνης (cobweb theorem)
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Keywords
Dry bulk freight markets ; Expectations ; Time lag ; Volatility ; Cobweb TheoremAbstract
It is widely accepted that the dry bulk market is highly volatile, with many fluctuations in the short- and long-term. The general aspect of the dry bulk market is monitored with the progress of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), along with progress of the other dry bulk sections. Specifically, the markets of Capesize, Panamax, Supramax, Handymax and Handysize vessels are examined. This thesis investigates the behavior of the aforementioned markets focusing on expectations and time lags. Expectations play a critical role in the freight market both for the short-term and the long-term decision making. In particular, the relation between time lags and time-charter, trip and spot market rates as well as the average earnings of the dry bulk vessels of various ages are investigated. Time series analysis is used to reach conclusions. The Hannan – Quinn criterion has been selected to identify the important lags of the freight markets and Autoregressive (AR) model has been constructed to perform the statistical analysis. The findings indicate that there is a strong correlation between time lags and progress of the freight markets, forecasting indeed the behavior of the markets. At a practical level, better understanding of the behavior of the dry bulk freight markets market can improve the planning decision of ship-owners and charterers alike.
Department
Σχολή Ναυτιλίας και Βιομηχανίας. Τμήμα Ναυτιλιακών ΣπουδώνNumber of pages
218Language
EnglishCollections
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Αναφορά Δημιουργού-Μη Εμπορική Χρήση-Όχι Παράγωγα Έργα 3.0 Ελλάδα
Αναφορά Δημιουργού-Μη Εμπορική Χρήση-Όχι Παράγωγα Έργα 3.0 Ελλάδα