Μέθοδοι εκτίμησης πινάκων επιβίωσης και βιομετρικών συναρτήσεων : εφαρμογή για την Ελλάδα το 2018
Methods of constructing a life-table and estimating biometric functions : an application for Greece, 2018
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Πίνακες επιβίωσηςAbstract
One of the most important topics of Actuarial Science is the construction of life tables.
This thesis aims to construct an abridged life table of the population of Greece by age group and gender for the year 2018, and then to transform the abridged life table to a
complete one, based on two methods, the method of uniform distribution of deaths
(UDD) and the constant force mortality method (CFM). The data was obtained from
the Hellenic Statistical Authority.
In the first chapter, basic definitions are presented along with a descriptive analysis of
the basic functions that constitute a life table. Then, the assumptions on which a survival
table is based are discussed as well as the required steps for constructing a life table
from empirical data. Subsequently, in the second chapter, methods that allow the
transformation of an abridged life table to a complete one are presented. First, the three
very important hypotheses concerning the force of mortality are analyzed, the
hypothesis of the uniform distribution of deaths, the hypothesis of constant force of
mortality and the Balducci hypothesis; subsequently, methods based on the available
literature are presented. In the third chapter, a complete life table by gender is
constructed for each method, based on an estimated abridged one, while some results
are illustrated and analyzed with the help of diagrams.
To conclude, the fourth and last chapter summarizes the main results extracted through
the analysis and compares the methods used. It was observed that the life expectancy
of women is greater than that of men for all methods under consideration. In addition,
small differences were observed between the methods for each age, however, based on
the results and the procedures, we came to the conclusion that the method of uniform
distribution of deaths gives us more realistic estimates.