Διερεύνηση εναλλακτικών μεθόδων μακροχρόνιων οικονομικών προβολών συστημάτων κοινωνικής προστασίας, με εφαρμογές στην Ελλάδα
Investigation of alternative methods of long-term economic projections of social protection systems, with applications to Greece
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Keywords
Μακροχρόνιες οικονομικές προβολών συστημάτων κοινωνικής προστασίας ; Κοινωνική ασφάλιση ; Πλήρης κεφαλαιοποίηση ; Αφανές χρέος ; Συνταξιοδοτικά συστήματα ; Νοητή κεφαλαιοποίησηAbstract
The growing social protection benefits in Greece in recent years have been the spearhead of the country's financial problem as well as the main reason for its near-official bankruptcy. An important factor in this fiscal crisis is the aging of the world population.
This dissertation first lists the available projection models and explains their use. The existing projection models are analyzed and the extent of their use in the field of social security is examined. Before the development of the research questions, an analysis of the current pension system is made and the reasons and the documentation of why it has been insolvent are presented. Next, a macroeconomic model of assumptions, that of the European Commission, is analyzed as a basis for assumptions for the subsequent projections. Finally, for the part of the preparatory work, the models for Notional Capitalization, their use, the international and the Greek experience as well as the mathematics behind their operation are analyzed in depth.
Proceeding to the research questions, firstly, we examine the evolution of the pension expenditure and related parameters in the theoretical case of the introduction of a notional defined contribution system in the main pension pillar. Altogether, the pension benefit the Greek state has to deliver in this case are greatly reduced, with a respective reduction of the replacement rate of pensions, which would then have to be replaced by the new type of secondary pension.
Secondly, the fiscal evolution of a new, fully funded defined contribution scheme as a secondary pension for all working people is projected. The case today for secondary pension is that not all people contribute to it, and the system follows the Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG) logic. The relevant institutional and organizational issues that arise from such a possible transition are also investigated. The offset, the increased replacement rates and the reserve that can be created for investment, are also looked into.
The last subject under examination is the evolution of the implicit debt of the Greek pension system. PAYG pension systems, like the Greek one, create obligations which are not met immediately and are not recorded in any financial statements, since future benefits are not a burden until they are paid. This, however, creates a “secret”, unrecorded debt which is called implicit debt and needs to be highlighted in order to estimate the potential harm it could cause to the state finances. Calculations show that in recent years there has been a small overall positive effect on the implicit debt, but there is no clear indication as to whether this is due to positive macroeconomic figures or to the implementation of pension reforms in many European countries. The dissertation concludes with the limitations due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on results as well as suggestions for future research.