Ευσταθής αποτίμηση δικαιωμάτων προαίρεσης αυτόματης ανάκλησης με τη χρήση αλγορίθμου Monte Carlo
Stable pricing of autocallable options by using a Monte Carlo algorithm

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Keywords
Προσομοίωση Monte Carlo ; Δικαιώματα προαίρεσης αυτόματης ανάκλησης ; Τεχνική διαχωρισμού ολοκληρώματος ; Συντελεστές ευαισθησίας ; Ευσταθής αποτίμηση ; Ευσταθής διαφοροποίηση ; Ελάττωση διακύμανσης ; Πιθανότητα επιβίωσης ; Περικομμένη κανονική κατανομή ; One-step survival στρατηγική ; GHK importance sampling τεχνικήAbstract
The aim of the present diploma thesis is the pricing of a special kind of options, the so-called autocallables, which may be terminated prior to their maturity due to a pre-existed barrier condition on their underlying assets. Through standard Monte Carlo algorithms pricing of such options is possible, but turns out to be also unstable. This happens for two reasons. Firstly, the variance of standard Monte Carlo estimators is especially high, resulting to unreliable prices. Secondly, these estimators do not behave in a stable manner with respect to numerical differentiation. Hence, we may not have a stable calculation for the Greek letters of these options, as well. For the univariate case, our main tool is the One-Step Survival strategy of Glasserman and Staum (2001), showing numerically and graphically that their estimator leads to stable pricing. For the bivariate case, we end up to similar results and conclusions by using the generalized One-Step Survival GHK strategy of Alm, B. Harrach, D. Harrach and Keller (2013).