Ανάλυση οικονομικών αποτελεσμάτων καθετοποιημένης εταιρίας ηλεκτρικής ενέργειας κατά το χρονικό διάστημα 2017-2019
Financial analysis and strategic management of vertical company in Greece electricity market, under regulatory obligations to reduce market share in period 2017-2019
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Keywords
Αγορά ηλεκτρικής ενέργειας ; Μερίδιο αγοράς ; Ρυθμιστικό πλαίσιο ; Πιθανοτική ανάλυση ; Καθετοποιημένη εταιρία ; Μοντέλο στόχος ; Ελλάδα ; Electricity market ; Market share ; Regulatory framework ; Stochastic analysis ; Vertically integrated company ; Target model ; GreeceAbstract
Scope of this Master Thesis is the economic analysis of a vertically integrated company
under regulatory market share reduction in the Greek electricity market, in order to draw
conclusions for strategy formulation during the period 2017-2019.
The examined company’s market share reduction is caused by regulatory changes in the
Greek electricity market, which derive from the obligations that Greece holds,
according to the European Law and the Memorandum of understanding between the
Hellenic Republic and the European Commission, for the complete electricity market
liberalization. The first obligation is, that past 01.01.2020 no company can produce or
import, directly or indirectly, electricity share greater than fifty per cent (50%) of the
annual electricity production of Greek production units or imports. The second
obligation is the implementation of an auction sales mechanism of forward electricity
products with physical delivery and regulated starting price (NOME type of auction), in
order to reduce the retail and wholesale market share of the former monopoly vertically
integrated electricity company below fifty per cent (50%).
The economic analysis of the examined company is based on a mathematical model
which solves the economic dispatch problem, in order to determine production units
generation and form the energy balance. The economic dispatch problem is an
optimization problem, and by integrating the Monte Carlo technique, the model
performs stochastic analysis of factors important to the problem solution. With this
model, annual simulation of the Greek wholesale electricity market in its current form,
during the period 2017-2019, is attempted, by mapping alternative scenarios, based on parameters that are characterized by uncertainty and are crucial for the market, taking
into consideration not only parameters’ most likely variations (baseline scenarios), but
also specific extreme parameters’ variations (special scenarios), in order to examine
their impact on the energy balance.
According to the results of the examined scenarios, conclusions are drawn and the
strategy formulation factors that the examined vertically integrated company needs to
focus on, in order to maximize its profits, taking into account the complexity and
specific characteristics of the electricity market and its forthcoming radical restructuring
with the adaptation of the current market model to the European Target Model for
electricity markets coupling and integration, are discussed.